## 2010 Race Predictions

### April 20, 2010

Based on excel regression and simulation. I am predicting Phi Delta Theta to be the race winners, with the Cutters coming in second. The rest of the field as follows:

1 | Phi Delta Theta |

2 | Cutters |

3 | Phi Kappa Psi |

4 | Phi Gamma Delta |

5 | Sigma Chi |

6 | Black Key Bulls |

7 | Beta Theta Pi |

8 | Gray Goat Cycling |

9 | Delta Tau Delta |

10 | Delta Upsilon |

11 | Acacia |

12 | Delta Chi |

13 | Evans Scholars |

14 | Sigma Phi Epsilon |

15 | Sigma Nu |

16 | Cru Cycling |

17 | Hoosier Climber? |

18 | Theta Chi |

19 | Wright Cycling |

20 | Delta Sigma Pi (M) |

21 | Kappa Sigma |

22 | Pi Kappa Phi |

23 | Zeta Beta Tau |

24 | Collins Bunny Gamma |

25 | Air Force Cycling |

26 | Cycling For Freedom |

27 | Phi Kappa Sigma |

28 | Achtung! |

29 | Phi Sigma Kappa |

30 | Dodds House |

31 | Sigma Alpha Mu |

32 | Emanon Cycling |

33 | Lambda Chi Alpha |

This year will certainly be a close race, with 5 teams being within the standard error of the model and thus having a shot at the win. Probabilities of a given team winning are as follows:

Team | Chance of Winning |

Phi Delta Theta | 24.5% |

Cutters | 18.3% |

Phi Kappa Psi | 16.8% |

Phi Gamma Delta | 11.5% |

Sigma Chi | 7.4% |

Black Key Bulls | 6.0% |

Beta Theta Pi | 4.2% |

Gray Goat Cycling | 3.1% |

Delta Tau Delta | 2.8% |

Delta Upsilon | 2.4% |

Check back next week. I will be comparing actual results to the predications

How it works:

A regression of historical data reveals that 67% of the race outcome can be explained by ITT times, team pursuit times, and qualification times. The ITT time of the team’s fastest rider and the team pursuit time were the most significant variables to explain race outcome. The ITT time of the fourth rider was insignificant and not included in the regression model. The model can predict a team’s race time to within 177 seconds. The expected race times are assumed to be normally distributed. This assumptions allows for simulation of 1000 iterations using the standard error of 177. This revealed each team’s chances of winning as listed above.

The model assumes that a team’s four fastest riders ride in the race. This assumption if, of course, imperfect but it provides the only simple way to regress ITT times to race outcome. All times are normalized to their respective yearly averages. This accounts for anomalies in weather, track conditions, and excessive yellow flags.

Times below/above event average | |||||||

Team | Rider 1 | Rider 2 | Rider 3 | Rider 4 | Team Pursuit | Quals | Race predicted |

Phi Delta Theta | -14.54 | -12.17 | -8.92 | -5.84 | -47.67 | -5.36 | -425.28 |

Cutters | -16.58 | -11.39 | -6.70 | -4.62 | -25.64 | -7.82 | -388.10 |

Phi Kappa Psi | -13.09 | -12.29 | -11.83 | -7.85 | -34.13 | -6.77 | -374.91 |

Phi Gamma Delta | -11.79 | -10.50 | -8.81 | -7.02 | -29.49 | -2.88 | -312.51 |

Sigma Chi | -10.56 | -10.35 | -9.93 | -6.28 | -24.98 | -3.91 | -281.77 |

Black Key Bulls | -10.81 | -9.52 | -7.70 | -5.54 | -23.19 | -4.09 | -266.57 |

Beta Theta Pi | -11.15 | -7.20 | -5.23 | -1.98 | -21.28 | -6.13 | -238.75 |

Gray Goat Cycling | -10.03 | -6.68 | -5.73 | 0.89 | -22.00 | -6.47 | -218.27 |

Delta Tau Delta | -10.37 | -7.77 | -4.40 | -4.22 | -6.84 | -6.36 | -189.33 |

Delta Upsilon | -9.77 | -9.45 | -6.77 | 8.02 | 2.41 | -1.19 | -175.45 |

Acacia | -8.42 | -0.96 | 1.18 | 7.59 | -16.17 | 3.43 | -96.49 |

Delta Chi | -6.83 | -4.90 | 0.78 | 1.83 | -11.14 | -2.65 | -95.41 |

Evans Scholars | -7.76 | -4.13 | 2.13 | 2.36 | 5.40 | -3.54 | -56.08 |

Sigma Phi Epsilon | -5.51 | -4.90 | -1.71 | 5.37 | -0.98 | 1.58 | -51.87 |

Sigma Nu | -4.44 | -4.30 | 0.87 | -8.73 | 2.21 | -40.16 | |

Cru Cycling | -4.68 | -3.67 | -1.73 | -0.30 | 3.94 | -1.29 | -14.11 |

Hoosier Climber? | -3.04 | -1.75 | -0.95 | 2.15 | -2.19 | -3.61 | 17.17 |

Theta Chi | -2.84 | -2.17 | -0.78 | 3.02 | 9.46 | 4.02 | 51.19 |

Wright Cycling | 4.61 | -8.86 | -4.67 | 2.70 | -10.03 | 0.86 | 52.25 |

Delta Sigma Pi (M) | -6.45 | 3.14 | 10.28 | 10.83 | 7.47 | 1.68 | 67.06 |

Kappa Sigma | -0.59 | 0.79 | 0.84 | 1.32 | 0.13 | -0.79 | 95.83 |

Pi Kappa Phi | -1.69 | -1.53 | -0.64 | 5.84 | 17.27 | -2.63 | 95.93 |

Zeta Beta Tau | 1.34 | 96.30 | |||||

Collins Bunny Gamma | -1.47 | -0.13 | 4.22 | 5.78 | 6.25 | 4.87 | 101.33 |

Air Force Cycling | -6.04 | 3.36 | 8.92 | 16.11 | 20.85 | 4.32 | 108.58 |

Cycling For Freedom | -0.53 | 0.08 | 6.55 | 13.19 | 6.07 | 110.61 | |

Phi Kappa Sigma | 3.46 | 5.84 | 157.68 | ||||

Achtung! | -2.68 | 6.67 | 11.37 | 27.06 | 19.66 | 4.67 | 201.88 |

Phi Sigma Kappa | 1.22 | 2.29 | 3.94 | 7.70 | 19.74 | 4.22 | 205.08 |

Dodds House | 1.30 | 3.40 | 3.46 | 11.94 | 17.57 | 5.93 | 209.98 |

Sigma Alpha Mu | 1.00 | 6.74 | 7.11 | 8.34 | 22.13 | 5.37 | 259.30 |

Emanon Cycling | 3.38 | 6.38 | 6.58 | 8.84 | 19.84 | 3.55 | 288.57 |

Lambda Chi Alpha | 10.31 | 11.67 | 68.99 | 5.62 | 568.30 |

Regression Statistics:

Coefficient | Standard | t-Value | p-Value | |

Regression Table | Error | |||

Constant | 95.8205 | 40.2274 | 2.3820 | 0.0189 |

Rider 1 | 17.2550 | 6.3459 | 2.7191 | 0.0076 |

Rider 2 | 9.2340 | 8.2817 | 1.1150 | 0.2673 |

Rider 3 | 3.1905 | 7.2550 | 0.4398 | 0.6610 |

Team Pursuit | 2.6771 | 0.9173 | 2.9184 | 0.0043 |

Quals | 0.3559 | 4.3517 | 0.0818 | 0.9350 |

Special thanks to Wayne Winston for help: http://www.waynewinston.com

April 23, 2010 at 3:16 am

[…] Here’s a link to the full post which is a must read for any Little 500 enthusiast. […]

April 23, 2010 at 5:45 pm

ROLI,

Nice job! You would have really raised your value as mechanic if you could have done this a few years ago. I’ll be down for the race, hit me up.

Proud to be…